{"id":403,"date":"2010-11-11T16:35:24","date_gmt":"2010-11-11T21:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/?p=403"},"modified":"2010-11-11T16:35:24","modified_gmt":"2010-11-11T21:35:24","slug":"district-by-district-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/?p=403","title":{"rendered":"DISTRICT- BY- DISTRICT- ANALYSIS"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Arlo Hale Smith Jr.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Member, San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee, <\/strong>Former Bart Board member.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Now that the dust has somewhat settled, one thing is clear . . . \u00a0Aaron Peskin\u2019s\u00a0Political Machine took a major beating in the November 2nd<\/sup> election.<\/p>\n

Peskin\/SFDCCC supported candidates Janet Reilly, Debra Walker and Rafael Mandelman\u00a0 lost in D 2, D 6. and D 8.\u00a0\u00a0 In D 10, the \u201creal\u201d choice of Peskin and the Bay Guardian – Tony Kelly – not only lost, but was blocked from receiving the SFDCCC\u00a0endorsement.<\/p>\n

Ballot measures dear to the Machine also lost:\u00a0\u00a0 Props D and E \u2013 which could have encouraged voter fraud by allowing illegals to vote and election day voter registration were defeated, as were attempts to raise the hotel tax to finance the orgies of spending desired by Peskin\u2019s allies on the Board of Supes.<\/p>\n

How this happened involves an analysis of the impact of RCV (Ranked Choice Voting)<\/p>\n

District 2: Informed Voters Use RCV to Overpower Wealthy Peskin Ally Janet Reilly<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

The D 2 races shatters conventional political thinking (on the Left) that RCV\u00a0tends to help \u201cprogressive\u201d candidates. Ammiano and company pushed RCV on the theory that eliminating the expense of traditional two candidate \u201crun offs\u201d would allow less well-financed candidates a better chance to win. \u00a0The problem with this logic:\u00a0 Peskin and his allies actually took power in 2000 because MODERATE candidates LOST conventional runoffs! [Remember, McGoldrick and Maxwell were distant second-place candidates whose run off wins were sort of a surprise!]<\/p>\n

In the D 2 race, Ms. Reilly had ample campaign funds and managed to get every endorsement on the Left \u2013 including the Labor Council and SFDCCC \u2013 almost by default.\u00a0 She ran a campaign in which she actually agreed with the moderate positions of\u00a0Supervisor elect Mark Farrell on most issues.\u00a0 She even ended up promising NOT to vote for Peskin for Mayor!\u00a0 However, the voters didn\u2019t trust her protestations of \u201cindependence\u201d from Peskin\u2019s Machine.<\/p>\n

This is where RCV comes in:\u00a0 Supporters of the 3rd<\/sup>, 4th<\/sup> and 5th<\/sup> place candidates\u00a0voted in favor of Farrell over Reilly in the RCV choices by about a 14% margin.This was adequate to overcome Reilly\u2019s 1.5% lead in \u201cfirst choice\u201d preferences. [Specifically Reilly lead by about 200 votes among \u201cfirst choices\u201d, but Farrell picked up 450 more votes from RCV than Reilly did, allowing him to win by about 200 votes.]<\/p>\n

Also adverse to Reilly was the fact that most voters understood RCV and did NOT exhaust their ballots. \u00a0\u00a0A voter who does not indicate a second or third choice preference may have his\/her ballot exhausted and not counted in subsequent RCV totals (beyond first choice tallies).\u00a0 Only about 1300 voters in D 2 \u201cexhausted\u201d their ballots.\u00a0This compares favorably to the 4000 and 8000 voters whose ballots were exhausted in D 6 and D 10, respectively.<\/p>\n

Analysis:\u00a0 The moderate, better educated voters of D 2 understood RCV and used it effectively.<\/p>\n

D6:\u00a0 Chiu and Kim Successfully Circumvent Peskin \u201cfix\u201d of the SFDCCC to Win<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Supervisor David Chiu actively campaigned for School Board President Jane Kim\u00a0despite the fact that Debra Walker had been Peskin\u2019s anointed candidate for over a year.\u00a0This was the first truly major public break between Peskin and his hand-picked successor, Chiu.<\/p>\n

While Kim and Walker did not dramatically differ on the issues, Kim made a point of reaching out to moderate voters, while Walker did not. \u00a0 This explains why Walker ended up leading on first-choice votes only in the more Left-voting precincts of D6.<\/p>\n

On the SFDCC Chiu desperately tried to line up 18 votes to block a Walker endorsement, but fell one vote short \u2013 despite the fact that nearly every moderate SFDCCC member voted for either Kim or Police Commissioner Theresa Sparks.<\/p>\n

Due to Peskin\u2019s unhappiness at Kim\u2019s decision to run, she could not even get a #2 choice from the SFDCCC. Moderate and Asian members of the SFDCCC joined Chiu in voting for Kim #2, but the vast majority of Peskin-backed members voted \u201cno endorsement\u201d to block Kim.<\/p>\n

In this race, RCV worked as it did in most past elections:\u00a0 Kim lead Walker on election day, and the RCV results merely confirmed Kim\u2019s lead.\u00a0 This was because the votes for the numerous other candidates tended to break between Kim and Walker in about the same as first choice ballots \u2013 with Kim consistently a few percentage points ahead of Walker.<\/p>\n

In this district voters seemed less informed about RCV than in D2 or D8:\u00a0 About 4000 voters exhausted their ballots compared to\u00a0 around 1300 in D 2 and 1700 in D 8.\u00a0 This may be linked to lower education levels in D 6 as opposed to voters in affluent or LGBT-dominated precincts as are found in D 2 and D 8.\u00a0 [Note:\u00a0 Although there were multiple LBGT candidates running in D 6, it is not an LGBT neighborhood like much of D 8.]<\/p>\n

Make no mistake:\u00a0 Though Kim is only slightly more moderate than Walker, her election required her and Supervisor Chiu to run against the SFDCCC and circumvent its endorsement.\u00a0 This is a grave defeat for Peskin in itself.<\/p>\n

D8:\u00a0 Peskin Mudslide Results in Wiener Landslide!<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Scott Wiener has been a personal target of Peskin for years.\u00a0 Despite the fact that the Democratic Party reached registration records under Scott Wiener\u2019s leadership, Peskin\u2019s first move upon taking control of the SFDCCC in 2008 was to remove Scott as Chair.\u00a0 This was accomplished through threats and intimidation of SFDCCC members.<\/p>\n

However, Peskin may have done Scott a favor:\u00a0 By removing him as SFDCCC Chair. Peskin gave Scott two years to campaign for Supervisor \u2013 without having to deal with the many administrative issues which will plague ANY SFDCCC Chair.<\/p>\n

The campaign was dirty:\u00a0 The SFDCCC only voted to endorse Rafael Mandelman by a bare majority and NEVER authorized the SFDCC to issue any \u201cattack\u201d pieces against\u00a0 any opposing candidate.\u00a0 This did not stop Peskin and Mandleman:\u00a0 Every Democratic voter in D 8 who had given the Registrar of voters an email address was mailed pieces purportedly from the \u201cSF Democratic Party\u201d which falsely suggested that Scott was endorsed by the Republican Party, and supports discrimination against immigrants and repeal of all rent control laws.<\/p>\n

Payback occurred on election day:\u00a0 Not only did Scott Wiener win big in \u201cfirst choice\u201d votes, but the RCV transfer from moderate candidates Rebecca Prozan and Bill Hemenger was in Scott\u2019s favor by about a 60%-40% margin.\u00a0\u00a0 Also only about 1700 voters exhausted their ballots (compared to 4000 in D 6 and 8000 in D 10).\u00a0\u00a0 This indicates that LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bi and Transexual) voters figured out RCV and intelligently cast strategic votes to stop election of Machine candidate Mandelman.<\/p>\n

This is consistent with the pattern that emerged in the Oakland Mayor\u2019s race.\u00a0 Strategic RCV voting by the LGBT community in that race was illustrated by the fact that 75% of those who voted for lesbian Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan, transferred their votes to Jean Quan \u2013 allowing Quan to overcome a 10% lead by Senator Don Perata in first choice votes.<\/p>\n

In the D8 race, however, the strategic use of RCV INCREASED the front-runner\u2019s (Scott\u2019s) lead, rather than diminished it.<\/p>\n

The defeat of Mandleman was a great blow to Peskin\u2019s attempt to create a \u201cveto proof\u201d majority on the Board of Supervisors.\u00a0 For years, Peskin and the Bay Guardian have regarded Bevan Dufty as \u201cthe blocker\u201d who kept them from overriding numerous Mayoral vetoes by Mayor Newsom.<\/p>\n

Peskin now probably wishes there were no term limits . . . since he surely would have preferred 4 more years of Bevan Dufty (who occasionally did back Peskin on veto overrides) to the election of his nemesis, Scott Wiener!<\/p>\n

D 10:\u00a0 The Candidate Won Understood RCV The Best Pulls It Off<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>This story is one in which an intelligent candidate and community concern about lack of African American representation stopped Peskin from foisting one of his Caucusian cronies onto the Board of Supes as a representative of this mostly minority\u00a0District.<\/p>\n

Peskin could not get Tony Kelly even third choice from the SFDCCC for a good reason:\u00a0 Though not all supporting the same candidate, African-American community members thronged the SFDCCC endorsement meeting, demanding that the SFDCCC endorse African-American candidates.\u00a0\u00a0 The SFDCCC ended up doing exactly that: endorsing DeWitt Lacy #1, Malia Cohen #2, and Eric Smith #3.\u00a0\u00a0 Due to this very public pressure, many of Peskin\u2019s stalwarts were unwilling to vote for Kelly over an African-American candidate.\u00a0 Indeed, here Peskin\u2019s strategy of recruiting officeholders running for the SFDCCC backfired.\u00a0 After all, did Peskin really expect that Supervisors and School Board members want to be responsible for NO AFRICAN AMERICAN on the Board of Supes?\u00a0 Of course not!<\/p>\n

Credit must be given to Malia Cohen for understanding that, in a closely divided race, a lot of #2 votes can beat lots of #1 endorsements for other candidates.\u00a0\u00a0 Cohen managed to get #2 endorsements from the SFDCCC and Labor Council \u2013 which had made #1 endorsements for also-rans DeWitt Lacy and Chris Jackson, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0 These endorsements helped move Lacy\u2019s and Jackson\u2019s #2 votes to Cohen.\u00a0\u00a0 Perhaps most crucially, Ms. Cohen understood the key was getting #2 votes from MODERATE African-Americans.\u00a0 Most of these voters were first choice supporters of BART Director Lynette Sweet.\u00a0 Cohen handled this by approaching supporters of Sweet and asking for #2 votes.\u00a0 It worked!\u00a0 The crucial RCV vote transfer of 500+ from Sweet\u2019s supporters vaulted Ms. Cohen over Kelly.<\/p>\n

To her credit, Malia Cohen did reach out to moderates during her campaign.\u00a0 She was, for example, at Plan C events that no other D10 candidate except Sweet was present.\u00a0\u00a0 Hopefully, Ms. Cohen will be more independent of the Machine than her predecessor Sophie Maxwell was.<\/p>\n

While RCV may have \u201cworked\u201d to elect an African-American candidate in this case, D10 shows a weakness with RCV.\u00a0 Many voters in D10 did not understand how to strategically vote using RCV, and exhausted their ballots.\u00a0 In D10 the number of exhausted ballots was over 8000.\u00a0 In contrast, the numbers of exhausted ballots in D2 and D8 were only, 1300 and 1400, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 These figures show the need for much greater voter education about RCV\u00a0 in future elections in working class areas such as D10 and 11.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Need to Dismantle Machine In 2012<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>This election proves that Peskin\u2019s Machine CAN be beat: Reilly, Walker and\u00a0Mandleman all were rejected by the voters despite SFDCCC endorsements.\u00a0 Thanks to\u00a0lobbying by the African-American community, Peskin was unable to get Tony Kelly\u00a0ANY SFDCCC endorsement.<\/p>\n

But the following fact remains:\u00a0 It cost hundreds of thousands in independent\u00a0expenditures for Farrell, Kim and Wiener to beat the Machine.<\/p>\n

In 2012, a much smaller campaign kitty would be adequate to destroy Peskin\u2019s\u00a0current majority of only 2 or 3 votes on the SFDCCC. This will even be more true if\u00a0events cause David Chiu to even more sharply break from Peskin.\u00a0That campaign should commence as soon as celebrations over\u00a0 November 2010\u00a0election are finished.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now that the dust has somewhat settled, one thing is clear . . . Aaron Peskin\u2019s Political Machine took a major beating in the November 2nd election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.argonaut360.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}